Buenos Aires Herald · October 5, 2026
Analysts predict that a Bolsonaro victory in Brazil would benefit Milei's economy
Following Flávio Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil’s first-round election, several market analysts interviewed by the Buenos Aires Herald agreed that a potential victory by him in the runoff could benefit Javier Milei’s Argentina. As they explained, an appreciation of the Brazilian real would make Argentine exports to Brazil cheaper, improving the trade balance, especially in sectors such as the automotive industry and regional economies.
The experts also pointed to greater political affinity between Milei, Bolsonaro, and the Donald Trump administration, which could facilitate the bilateral agenda and unblock Mercosur trade agreements, including the one with the European Union. However, they warned of risks: a Brazilian fiscal tightening could reduce demand for Argentine products, and greater trade liberalization in Brazil could increase competition for local exports, especially if the agreement with the EU moves forward.
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