Buenos Aires Herald · October 7, 2026
Analysts foresee a technical recession and lower their 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%
The monthly survey published by the Central Bank on market expectations showed a deterioration in the projections for the Argentine economy. The Buenos Aires Herald reported that participants lowered their GDP growth estimate for 2026 from 2.1% to 1.5%, and that the third quarter likely saw a 1% contraction, marking two consecutive negative quarters and constituting a technical recession.
Inflation and unemployment forecasts were also revised upward. The projected unemployment rate for the current quarter stands at 7.5% and for the previous quarter at 7.7%, while the annual inflation rate is estimated at 30%. The exchange rate was the only variable without significant changes: the dollar is expected to close December at 1,614 pesos. The currency has depreciated by more than 7% since Javier Milei took office.
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